diff --git a/app/Actions/ApplyStripeBillingEvent.php b/app/Actions/ApplyStripeBillingEvent.php
index d576f12..ded9ed9 100644
--- a/app/Actions/ApplyStripeBillingEvent.php
+++ b/app/Actions/ApplyStripeBillingEvent.php
@@ -346,6 +346,22 @@ class ApplyStripeBillingEvent
             return;
         }
 
+        // Only what we could not match. A handler returns null for several
+        // reasons — already recorded, or deliberately skipped, like every
+        // checkout's own invoice — and holding those would fill the table with
+        // rows that replayHeldFor() can never revisit, because their contract
+        // is right there. Nothing to wait for means nothing to hold.
+        if (Subscription::query()->where('stripe_subscription_id', $subscriptionId)->exists()) {
+            // Unless it appeared just now: the contract can be created between
+            // the handler missing it and this check, and the replay that would
+            // have collected it has then already been and gone. Apply it here
+            // instead of dropping it. Safe to repeat — the handlers are
+            // idempotent, so an event that was a no-op stays one.
+            $this->dispatch($event);
+
+            return;
+        }
+
         StripePendingEvent::query()->updateOrCreate(
             ['stripe_event_id' => $event['id']],
             [
diff --git a/database/migrations/2026_07_25_090004_make_customer_identity_unique.php b/database/migrations/2026_07_25_090004_make_customer_identity_unique.php
index 8c0cc61..bce3b6a 100644
--- a/database/migrations/2026_07_25_090004_make_customer_identity_unique.php
+++ b/database/migrations/2026_07_25_090004_make_customer_identity_unique.php
@@ -21,7 +21,15 @@ return new class extends Migration
     public function down(): void
     {
         Schema::table('customers', function (Blueprint $table) {
+            // MariaDB will not drop the last index a foreign key depends on,
+            // and the constraint added one migration earlier is using this one.
+            // So release it, drop the index, and put it back — re-adding builds
+            // the index the constraint needs. Without this the whole suite of
+            // migrations cannot be rolled back, which is how `migrate:fresh`
+            // works.
+            $table->dropForeign(['user_id']);
             $table->dropUnique(['user_id']);
+            $table->foreign('user_id')->references('id')->on('users')->nullOnDelete();
         });
     }
 };
diff --git a/tests/Feature/Billing/StripeBillingTest.php b/tests/Feature/Billing/StripeBillingTest.php
index ee9920e..dd1f7fc 100644
--- a/tests/Feature/Billing/StripeBillingTest.php
+++ b/tests/Feature/Billing/StripeBillingTest.php
@@ -288,6 +288,36 @@ it('holds a billing event that arrives before the contract exists, and applies i
         ->and(App\Models\StripePendingEvent::query()->count())->toBe(0);
 });
 
+it('holds nothing for a contract that is right there', function () {
+    stripeContract();
+
+    // Deliberately skipped: the checkout's own invoice.
+    $this->postJson(route('webhooks.stripe'), [
+        'id' => 'evt_c', 'type' => 'invoice.paid', 'created' => now()->timestamp,
+        'data' => ['object' => [
+            'id' => 'in_c', 'subscription' => 'sub_1', 'amount_paid' => 21480,
+            'billing_reason' => 'subscription_create',
+        ]],
+    ])->assertOk();
+
+    // Already recorded: a redelivered renewal.
+    $renewal = [
+        'id' => 'evt_r', 'type' => 'invoice.paid', 'created' => now()->timestamp,
+        'data' => ['object' => [
+            'id' => 'in_r', 'subscription' => 'sub_1', 'amount_paid' => 21480,
+            'billing_reason' => 'subscription_cycle',
+            'period_start' => now()->timestamp, 'period_end' => now()->addMonth()->timestamp,
+        ]],
+    ];
+    $this->postJson(route('webhooks.stripe'), $renewal)->assertOk();
+    $this->postJson(route('webhooks.stripe'), $renewal)->assertOk();
+
+    // The holding area waits for contracts that do not exist yet. Ordinary
+    // traffic must not silt it up with rows nothing will ever come back for.
+    expect(App\Models\StripePendingEvent::query()->count())->toBe(0)
+        ->and(SubscriptionRecord::query()->where('event', 'renewal')->count())->toBe(1);
+});
+
 it('holds an event only once however often Stripe redelivers it', function () {
     $event = [
         'id' => 'evt_repeat', 'type' => 'invoice.paid', 'created' => now()->timestamp,